Abstract: Nowadays with crime acts increasing and changing their forms its exploratory development is a highly topical issue. In order to prevent crime and for precrime activities it is necessary to develop new and con temporary methods of its researches for taking operating actions. Method of mathematical model approach of crimes appears as one of the ways of anticipatory analysis of criminal situation. The well-formed mathematical model makes possible to predict crime dynamics and take actions for its prevention. It allows quantitative analysis to be used in its research for the description of real time events. Mathematical method in criminalistics is not developed enough today. Also it can be said that methods of correlation, cluster, structure, factor and cause-and-effect analysis and some other mathematical methods which apply current software tools are not put in use in full. Goal of research is to form a proper mathematical model of seasonal variations of crime acts which tend to the full objective reality. This article considers the modeling method of seasonal variations of crime acts based on statistics of recorded crimes in Yakutia for its data forecasting. The key point of this method is forming of the regression model that includes not only the time factor but seasonal indicator variables which allows accounting for seasonal (cyclic) component of temporal series. The study object is actual criminal acts on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The subject of the research is mathematical modeling of number of recorded crimes. Practical relevance of the research results is thus due to the fact that the developed mathematical method can be applied to in actual work of the analytical subdivisions of the MIA of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Performed calculations depict that the highest rate of criminal acts is in spring and the lowest rate is in winter.
Index terms: method of indicator variables, regression model, seasonal variations, crime, forecasting.


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